Moderating Roles of Digital Maturity and Green FinTech Access for African SMEs

• Ada John

  ladoke Akintola university of technology

  Author

African small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) face mounting pressure to decarbonize their supply chains while simultaneously managing financial performance and operational risks. However, the relationship between supply chain decarbonization and financial outcomes remains inadequately understood in resource-constrained contexts. This study develops and validates a predictive framework examining how supply chain decarbonization practices influence financial performance and risk mitigation among African SMEs, with digital maturity and green FinTech access as moderating variables. Using a hybrid methodology combining structural equation modeling and machine learning algorithms on data from 487 SMEs across Nigeria, Kenya, South Africa, and Ghana, the study achieves 89.4% predictive accuracy for financial performance outcomes. Findings reveal that supply chain decarbonization positively impacts financial performance (β = 0.342, p < 0.001) and risk mitigation (β = 0.287, p < 0.01), with digital maturity significantly moderating these relationships. Green FinTech access amplifies the decarbonization-performance nexus, particularly for SMEs with higher digital maturity. The study contributes a validated predictive framework that identifies digital maturity and green FinTech access as critical enablers for successful supply chain decarbonization initiatives. Practical implications include targeted investment priorities for SME managers and policy recommendations for expanding green financial infrastructure across African markets.

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Copyright (c) 2026 Ada John (Author)

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