An Integrated Multi-Criteria Decision-Making (MCDM) Model for Closed-Loop Supply Chain Efficiency, Digitalization, and Carbon Neutrality in African Urban Logistics

• Abill Robert

  Califonia University

  Author

African urban logistics systems face mounting pressure to reconcile economic efficiency with environmental sustainability amid rapid urbanization, inadequate infrastructure, and fragmented regulatory frameworks. While closed-loop supply chain (CLSC) principles and digitalization offer promising pathways toward carbon neutrality, existing decision-support tools inadequately address the unique socio-technical constraints of African cities. This study develops and validates an integrated Multi-Criteria Decision-Making (MCDM) model that synthesizes Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP), Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution (TOPSIS), and fuzzy logic to evaluate CLSC efficiency, digitalization readiness, and carbon neutrality pathways. Using a mixed-methods design combining expert elicitation from 47 logistics practitioners across six African cities and retrospective analysis of operational data from 2020-2025, the model achieved 89.4% predictive accuracy in identifying optimal configuration pathways. Key findings reveal that digitalization readiness (weight: 0.342) and reverse logistics infrastructure (weight: 0.287) emerge as dominant criteria, while carbon pricing mechanisms and informal sector integration significantly moderate implementation success. The framework provides a replicable decision-support tool for policymakers and logistics managers, offering actionable pathways for transitioning toward carbon-neutral urban logistics systems while acknowledging resource constraints and institutional heterogeneity characteristic of African contexts.

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Copyright (c) 2026 Abill Robert (Author)

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